Health collapse in Manaus: the burden of not adhering to non- pharmacological measures to reduce the transmission of Covid-19

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to compare the evolution of COVID-19 in Manaus and Fortaleza, two epicenters of the pandemic in 2020, analyzing legal measures by local governments and levels of social isolation. An algorithm was defined to calculate the Homestay Index (HSI), using data from the Google Mobility Report. The Decree's timeline, the HSI evolution, the incidence of COVID-19 and the number of deaths from March/2020 to January/2021 were analyzed. The population of Fortaleza was exposed to more consistent measures of social distance, than those of Manaus. Longer homestay was observed from March to May 2020 and Fortaleza achieved higher and more lasting levels. As of June 2020, the HSI fell, notably in Manaus, reaching levels below zero in late December. As an aggravating factor, the government decreed ample isolation in Manaus on December 23/2020, but after protests, it repeals it on December 26/2020. A Judicial Decision determines the complete closure in Manaus on January 02/2021, but it was too late: SUS collapses with an exponential increase in deaths. In Fortaleza, the demand for health services is high, but under control. We consider that only the strict application of non-pharmacological measures and mass immunization can prevent further deaths.